Business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect GDP to increase at an annualized rate of 23.9% in the third quarter. That is up sharply from an expectation of an 18.3% growth rate in the previous survey. The projected rebound for the third quarter would recoup about half of the output lost in the first half of the year.
- Labor market strengthening: Economists also see faster improvement in the labor market, after employers added 1.37 million jobs to payrolls last month. The unemployment rate fell below 10% in August for the first time since March to 8.4%, and economists now expect the jobless rate to tick down to 8.1% in December.
- Events that could stunt economic recovery: “A second wave of the coronavirus, escalating tensions with China, contested elections, civil unrest, and insufficient fiscal stimulus could be a toxic cocktail that pushes the economy into a second dip in the fourth quarter.” [WSJ]